Conflict-ravaged Burma Votes in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Election ballots in Myanmar
Myanmar's junta is conducting a staggered election over the coming weeks.

The nation is holding an election in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and as much as half of the country unable to participate because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been engaged on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into stages, the junta can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".

Robin Boone
Robin Boone

A seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in predictive modeling and betting strategy development.